TransCanada Should Know When Bets Are Off
The chips aren't stacked in favour of TransCanada's Keystone XL pipeline. Does TransCanada know when to fold?
The Keystone XL pipeline has been a hot-button issue to say the least in the past few months. The embattled proposed $7.6-billion line from Alberta’s oilsands across six states hits the headlines again this morning as political wrangling in the U.S. threatens to kill hopes of any firm decision in the immediate future.
Congress decided to play Russian roulette and attached a provision to a payroll-tax extension bill forcing President Obama’s hand on the issue. The provision would give the president 60 days to make a final decision on Keystone’s permit.
I’m sure TransCanada’s collective heart skipped a beat when the Senate passed the bill in an 89-10 vote on Saturday. But it shouldn’t be a surprise that House Speaker John Boehner effectively killed the legislation because of Republican “reservations” over the length of the payroll tax holiday (which would benefit 160 million Americans).
Sometimes when you take a gamble, you lose. In this case, the big loser is TransCanada.
When TransCanada has environmental groups shouting down the project, President Obama threatening to table his final decision on the permit until after the 2012 election and an essentially useless Congress that can hardly pass basic legislation to avoid a government shutdown, I think it’s time to stop holding your breath.
Before TransCanada got its hopes up, they should’ve asked any American Joe Schmo about their odds of the bill passing successfully. Even Joe would’ve said the chips are stacked against them — Congress has proven it can’t even act in the U.S.’s best interests, let alone Canada’s.
So, TransCanada, I’d take a break on the intense lobbying for a while. Maybe, just maybe, the game will change in 2013.
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