2040 Vision: B.C. and Climate Change

Imagine that it’s the November launch of the 2040 ski season at Whistler Blackcomb. Like every other B.C. business, the resort is grappling with the ravages of climate change. But Whistler is coming off a busy summer, mostly thanks to throngs of locals attracted to draws such as its mountain-bike park. As in scorching August, a month miraculously free of major forest fires, many of the visitors piling into the village’s hotels, restaurants and bars are from B.C. and Washington. 


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The forecast calls for yet another mild winter, and the ski slopes don’t hold snow like they once did. So Whistler is making its own when scarce water supplies allow. It has also groomed its runs so they can open with a thin sheet of snow, and has strung chairlifts high into the still-powdery alpine. Beyond these climate adaptations, Whistler is adjusting to life in a low-carbon world. A micro-hydro project on the river dividing Whistler and Blackcomb mountains yields enough renewable energy to offset the power used by the resort’s winter and summer operations.


In fact, Whistler is already doing everything you just read. That includes the single-turbine hydro project – a partnership with Longueuil, Quebec-based Innergex Renewable Energy and Vancouver’s Ledcor Power Group – that switches on this month and will sell 33.5 gigawatt hours of electricity annually to BC Hydro. Planning manager Arthur DeJong says he and his environmental team are trying to strike a balance between overplaying and underplaying the effects of climate change. For Whistler, that means becoming a year-round destination and sustaining skiing through the middle of the century. But it also means reducing greenhouse gas emissions that threaten to cook the planet.


“Our long-term goal is to have a zero operating footprint, meaning no carbon and no waste,” DeJong says. “It’s all about doing it, as opposed to expecting others

Thirty years out – too soon for Jetsons scenarios but far enough away for industry to retool – how will global warming change the B.C. economy? Nobody knows the answer to that question. But when BCBusiness asked academic experts, business leaders, environmentalists and other interested parties how our province might look in 2040, they kindly played along. Their responses revealed great challenges – and generous opportunities if we can adapt to whatever’s coming.


B.C. also has the chance to set an example. John Robinson, a professor at UBC’s Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, says Europe is regarded as a leader in sustainable development. But as he points out, European countries tend to be consumers rather than producers of resources and have stable or declining populations. By contrast, B.C. better reflects global trends because it has a resource-based economy and a growing population. “If we can figure out sustainability in that context, that’s way more interesting to developing countries and most fast-growing economies around the world than the European model,” Robinson says.


To set the scene for 2040, let’s look at what might happen to the weather over the next three decades. Regional climate models suggest that B.C.’s average annual temperature will rise 1.7 degrees Celsius by the 2050s. This is roughly in line with the expected global increase. Meanwhile, the province’s average annual precipitation is projected to climb six per cent, and the models predict wetter winters and drier summers.